筆者經過多翻思量及考慮, 最終決定買入中小型地產股嘉華國際. 而美聯集團亦是筆者的觀察名單之中.
嘉華去年最觸目的便是出售所持有銀河娛樂的大部份股權, 一下子套現約38億港元. 認為此做法非常正確. 不但可以稍放出嘉華作為地產發展商的價值, 亦令他擁有大量金錢可以進一步購入土地, 增加土儲. 而且負債比率只有15%. 再加上筆者一向看好香港地產市道及惠理基金與大股東呂志和不斷增持嘉華而決定於本週以平均約3.6元買入嘉華國際, 勢要乘上這駕地產號快車!
筆者亦看中美聯集團作為輔助角色. 但仍在觀察中.
繼續看淡中資孖寶941及2628, 仍然覺得現價偏貴, 認為只能作為月供股票等長線投資的目標(有買貴, 無買錯).
May 28th, 2008 at 11:50 am
薪酬趨升，就業情況持續向好，市民買樓意慾提升。美聯物業制定的住宅價薪率，顯示住宅樓價相等於7.23年的家庭收入，若今明兩年平均加薪幅度為5%，以及「住宅價薪率」回復至9.7倍的水平，樓價可有5成上升潛力。
美聯集團首席分析師劉嘉輝昨日於記者會時表示，若公務員成功加薪將會掀動整體就業市場加薪潮，相信對物業市場有刺激作用。根據美聯物業及土地註冊處資料，最新私人物業家庭入息中位數及按息2.5厘計算，目前本港供樓負擔比率仍不足3成，儘管樓價持續上升，但市民收入亦相應增加，故市民可以家庭收入約3成便可選購上車物業。
May 28th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Colin,
想請教一下,你認為嘉華國際為可作多少年既投資?
另外嘉華國際係2006年至2007年兩年內既純利增長為近乎10倍,是否亦有計算嘉華出售所持有銀河娛樂的大部份股權所得既利益?
對投資方面有竅不通,煩請指點。
謝。
May 28th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
決定於本週以平均約3.6元買入嘉華國際, 勢要乘上這駕地產號快車!
我都買番d sin~~ 請問今次目標價幾多ar? 是否打算keep 到09 年??
May 28th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
豆腐 - 2至3年度. 升十倍係計埋出售銀河, 唔計賣銀河既話net profit升3.8倍.
但係佢既價值仲未釋放出來. 我既初步目標係6蚊.
May 28th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Colin,
想請教何以目標係6蚊?我想學一學你既思路.
謝!
May 28th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
DK - 估計每股資產淨值有6蚊或以上, 所以我會等到6蚊先算.
May 28th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
嘉華國際(173)近來股價表現得還不錯，主席呂志和數日前也增持，嘉國正進入收成期，手上的地盤將為公司帶來巨大的利潤。(曾淵滄)
May 28th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
我之前都有諗過買嘉華國際 (資產折讓甚大)，不過最後都係直接買樓 =p
May 28th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
中資孖寶還是留給個別有心人慢慢打氣。兩隻都是好股，不過不是好的投資。
早前高位瘋狂接貨的老散，到三年後，就會發覺孖寶按年只有8%-10回報。
e.g. 上年(2007年)$40買了人壽，三年後(2010年)破頂$53，年回報10%。如果今年買，兩年後升至$53，年回報15%。
時間值始終是回報率的關鍵之一，要賺錢就要懂計數，不能天天打氣和聽收音機，聽大師分析完就當做了功課。
May 28th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
有否考慮再買2343 ? 你認為什麼價位值得再買入?
May 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Hi Colin, thx…hey, dont see you leaving any replies wor? Forget this Fans la? haha..well, thx for your new post..actually i did think of investing in 806 when it was dropped below 5 in Mar but i didnt have cash that time…do you think we should buy 806 (value partner)instead?
Also, I found a share 303 (v-tech) with a good result and dividend yield. The boss is really smart and is like an international CEO who have a very good leading skills. In addition, the shareholding is not concentrated on either side and i think there will be not much on shareholding manipulation…
THe only thing under my concern is the increasing cost due to oil prices and the market they sold is from US..however, V-tech is doing a good job in cost saving and its reflected in the last 2 yrs P&L and I think they will be giving out good result of the coming year..
what do you think about my proposal?
THx
Wilson
May 29th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
佢又嚟喇!
據港交所資料顯示，嘉華國際主席呂志和申報於5月26日，增持13萬股股份，每股平均價3.485元，持股量由54.86%增至54.87%。
May 29th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Wilson - 我無研究 806 and 303 呢，我會集中於173同1200。
TKO ppl - 2343 會密切留意，若股價跌至吸引水平，絕對會再入，但估計2343要跌至不合理水平的機會不高，除非有大型股災，如去年817果隻。如果已持有2343的無須擔心，此股絕對會上20蚊。
May 29th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
第一次留言，你好。
小弟眼見最近多位財金博主積極在樓市中投資，亦有開始留意1200。
不知先生認為那個價格才值得考慮買入呢？
雖然股價已經過大幅下跌，可是主席在上月才減持過股份。
既然樓市前景看好，那為何還減持手上股份呢？大惑不解…
謝指教。
May 29th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
勁啊Colin, today 1200 rise jor a lot ~~~~~~~~
May 30th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Hi Colin, I just checked to 2007 annual report and the NAV I worked out is HKD 3.86. Can you tell me how work out HKD 6 ? Do you include the shareholding on 27 as well? Or its your own forecasted NAV for 08?
Thx
May 30th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Wilson - it’s estimated NPV of all projects.
May 30th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
My idol, dont get it,do u use all properties under development in the reserve (provided in 07 Annual report) and work it out the cost of land or what? the word “project” is quite broad, would u mind sharing with us more on how u work out this figures? This is good to learn how to judge an investment by using discounted cashflow method…
Thx so much
May 30th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Wilson, no ar, the figure in Balance Sheet is cost only, the $6 NAV include the net present value of the selling price of “property under development” in the current assets sections and other assets and some “payables” are not included in the liabilities because they have been charged the profit and loss already.
Hope can help u lah~
May 30th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Thats exactly my question is - how do u work out selling price of Property under development (note 25) ?” Do you use a market price to value them? Or its just a rough estimate…I m trying to work out your $6 but obviously it’s quite a hard job becos I dont know wat payables you counted in and what else you dont…also the same for some assets…further, do u discount the cashflow? or simple cashflow without discounting?
Sorry for too many questions to ask, but as a responsbile fans of your blog, we should be putting more effort to understand how you think, rather than taking the stock code and buy…what’s the difference btw you and “Uncle 6″ if we just accept your choice without thinking the rationale behind? You may notice more & more long supporting blog fans of you are now trying to ask questions or try out the same mathematics as you do, I think this is good becos it means we do take time to digest your quality work…wat do u think?
May 31st, 2008 at 9:25 am
Do you use a market price to value them? < - yes ar, the amount of money that can be collected upon sales of those “property under development” and then discount back to present value. $6 is not what i calculated, it is a discount of the NAV that I worked out from the NPV model. so the NAV is higher than $6, but to be safe and prudence it is better to discount the NAV because the selling price is just an estimate and things can change, so better give yourself a safety margin.
Dont worry Wilson, I’ll try my best to answer the questions
May 31st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Many many thx…hope you earn more ….and thx for being so patient to answer our questions all the time…!
June 1st, 2008 at 6:51 pm
美國一加息, 173 / 1200 會點算? 我諗緊佢有咩風險